Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA
نویسندگان
چکیده
Subjective beliefs and behavior regarding the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test for prostate cancer were surveyed among economists attending the annual American Economic Association meeting. Logical inconsistency was measured in percentage deviations from a restriction imposed by Bayes’ Rule on pairs of conditional beliefs. Economists with inconsistent beliefs tended to be more accurate than average. Perfect Bayesians were substantially less accurate. Using a loss function framework, we look for but cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs cause economic losses. Economists' PSA testing decisions depend on social influences but, surprisingly, are independent of beliefs about cancer risks.
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